| Math Tutoring in Central Jersey...by Me! |
[May. 10th, 2012|08:25 pm] |
I'm still working on my other entrepreneurial project, but I'm now tutoring, as well. If you know anyone in central New Jersey who could use math (or spreadsheet) help, please send them my way. Also, I'd really appreciate it if you re-post this link on Facebook and on anywhere else you think it would be appropriate.
http://www.avinslearning.com/ |
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| Stats jargon (and mindset of the field) assumes everything is choice and nature plays no role |
[Apr. 20th, 2012|10:03 pm] |
I've been learning how to model baseball, where the outcome of events is based on abilities of several people. It was hard, initially, to find the stuff I needed to learn, because the stats work done in the last 80 years or so is almost always presented in terms of a single individual making a choice. Competition and natural events aren't about choice, but they (especially the latter) comprise most of the things one might use the techniques for.
Now that I know what the statisticians' game is, I can think of everything in terms of Nature making a choice, where the abilities correspond to preferences on Natures part. But that's a pretty silly way of looking at everything, if you're not trying to fit into shoes marketed to someone else.
I majored in stats 30 years ago. I don't think this everything-is-a-choice ideology was pervasive in what I learned then. But most of what I learned had been developed before 1925 and most of what I'm learning now has been developed since. The upshot (aside from making it harder for someone now self-teaching to realize that the work I needed had been done) is to reinforce the tendency of the successful (those who need to take advances statistics courses being generally not without privilege, despite lack of income while studying) to pat themselves on the back and see their success as entirely a matter of virtuous choices.
Economists and political scientists, especially, it seems to me, would be better educated in a true sense if their feet were not always crammed into 'choice' shoes. |
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| 2016 |
[Apr. 15th, 2012|06:49 pm] |
Someone in a forum I'm on asked, assuming Obama wins in 2012, who are the most likely nominees in 2016.
Since we probably won't be in a war, the 2016 nominees (and especially the eventual winner) will most likely be governors in 2012. I just went over the complete list.
Among Democrats I see Cuomo (NY) and O'Malley (MD) as the most likely, by a considerable margin. Clinton is unlikely to run even if Cuomo doesn't, and even less likely in the expected scenario where he does.
Among Republicans, I see Brownback (KS), Corbett (PA), Haslam (TN), Kasich (OH), and McDonnell (VA) as the most likely possibilities. No, it won't be Christie. Nor would I bet on it being any of the several youngish Washington-based GOP stars, though they're more likely than Christie. I don't totally dismiss Huckabee. I do totally dismiss Palin. |
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| BABIP (batting average on balls in play) |
[Mar. 21st, 2012|03:15 pm] |
Of the 262 MLB players who've had at least 8000 Plate Appearances, these were the top 10 and bottom 10 in BABIP (H - HR) / (AB - HR - SO)
The top list is mostly to old-timers. Of the 40 batters who had the most Plate Appearances regardless of what they did with them, I saw 30 of them play (at least on TV). You wouldn't guess that from this top list.
.383 Cobb .365 Hornsby .361 Carew .359 Burkett .358 Delahanty .357 Jeter .353 Suzuki .351 Heilmann .351 Speaker .348 Boggs ... .269 J Carter .267 Corcoran .266 G Carter .265 Bo Boone .265 Baylor .264 Berra .263 Bando .258 Killebrew .253 Da Evans .248 Nettles |
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| The Earth ages backwards. |
[Mar. 17th, 2012|07:32 pm] |
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The east of North America's terrain is so old, it doesn't show any age. But the west is young enough that it's incredible ancientness ancientness. |
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| Circular Firing Squads |
[Mar. 9th, 2012|05:00 pm] |
I continue to be be amazed, distressed, and depressed about the nature of the debate among the activist left. In the piece I'm linking to, the main point (or at least what at first seems like the main point is correct and is a must read. When he goes on to decry telling people what they think should be the most important issues, the tune sounds good, but specifics would be helpful.
Then he ties left criticism of the Obama Administration to his original point. He is in large measure correct, but his lst of issues are in some cases poor examples because h'es not entirely right about them and in other cases sarcastic caricatures of what most of the people he's trying to convince believe. He ends up engaging in the exact same kind of argument he is for good reason railing against.
In any case, it's worth a read. http://pleasecutthecrap.typepad.com/main/2012/03/progressives-and-manufactured-outrage-why-we-lose-elections.html
The specifics of my complaint on the issues are that to the extent anyone actually believes those criticisms as he stated them, he's 100% right on #2 and #s 6-10.
#1: The criticism is correct.
#3: Closely related to something that is correct; the change should not have had punishment as its goal, but the public's mood to punish could have been harnessed for necessary and neglected reform.
#4: Also related to the truth. Overtly saying the single-payer would be preferable but he would work with Congress to find a mutally agreeable format would have put him in a substantially better bargaining position.
#5: Arguable, and therefore at least "close to rational."
h/t: chemoelectric |
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| We don't have true recessions anymore. |
[Mar. 9th, 2012|01:08 pm] |

There is a clear distinction between the first eight recoveries on the one hand and this and the previous two on the other.
Through 1981, we had temporary recessions from which we fairly quickly bounced back to the level we had been at.
Since 1990, we have not had recessions in that sense. We have had shrinkage, where we establish a new, lower base and have normal growth from there. |
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| Steroids, continued: looking for the early impact |
[Mar. 3rd, 2012|08:18 pm] |
Here's some more food for thought, and keep in mind that according to weightlifters and body body builders freom a few decades ago, the principal advantage of steroids is that your muscles recover from workouts faster, so you can lift every day rather than needing a day off in between to let the muscle heal and grow.
By coincidence, I'm reading Wizardry, a book introducing a probably better fielding evaluation system than had existing using only public domain data, and today I ran into the following passage (all punctuation within in interior quotes are as quoted):"Our third certifiably bright guy, Bob Boone, attended Stanford University. He was the only catcher I'm aware of who was a better fielder in his thirties than in his twenties. The Historical Abstract reports that he 'was a very smart receiver, who worked as hard to stay in shape as anyone who ever played baseball.' The Historical Abstract also says that Boone's teammate Steve Carlton "was the hardest working, best-conditioned baseball player of his generation...[who] used to exercise by jogging twenty minutes in dry ice[;] every step was a marathon.' Well, there's a coincidence. Both Carlton and Boone somehow made themselves into better players circa 1980-81 via intense exercise regimens. Carlton went on to have some of his best years in his mid-thirties, and the weak-hitting Boone was able to extend his career far beyond what anyone would have expected at the time. It's stories like these we need to hear to remind ourselves how hard ballplayers work to keep their dreams alive." Indeed. In every way they can. And it is hard work. Steroids don't have much if any positive effect unless you're also working out, and the best effect is to be had by working harder than one would otherwise be able to.
Brian Downing (nickname: The Incredible Hulk), whom Bill James wondered at (before steroids were much on anyone's mind) as someone who made a career for himself in a totally different way than his original skills suggested, was a teammate of Ryan's in California in 1978 and 1979. I rmember a TV special on Ryan, during one of the last years of his career. They kept going on about his "inhuman" and "unbelievable" exercise regimen.
Unless somebody talks when they're too old to worry about the consequences, we'll never know for sure when the problem started and how it spread. But I think it's a good working assumption that it began to have a significant impact in the very late 1970s or the early 1980s.
So what do we do, if you accept (at least for argument) that the statistical evidence is very highly suggestive for some players, even absent other evidence? Do you totally ignore the evidence because you're less than 100% sure or because other may make a bigger deal of than it deserves? I don't think that's the right approach. In fact, I think the more that fans realize that it's not just one generation of players, but also others whom they may have fonder memories of, the more those fans will put the whole thin in proper perspective rather than thinking it a bigger deal than excluding a large part of the talent pool based on skin color |
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| On Steroids and the HOF, via a Discussion on Jeff Kent |
[Mar. 2nd, 2012|08:07 pm] |
In the middle of a discussion, I wrote: I wouldn't vote for any close cases (which I believe him to be) who look deserving only because they aged what would be unusually well, except that at the height of steroids, it wasn't so unusual.
I don't think using makes them bad people, But I also don't think that's what we want to commemorate. I also realize aging well isn't proof, but I think proof should not be the standard.
If the Hall served mostly as a reward for the players, perhaps more proof should be required. But it doesn't, the Hall serves to codify and keep in memory that which we think is the best of baseball. For the public (and the people who own and run the NBHOF). That the players themselves benefit from it is incidental.
Under those conditions, I don't think Kent is what we should choose to remember his era by, except when considering how we can do better. Someone replied:Uh, what?? I don't even understand what you're saying here... I think you might be saying you think Jeff Kent doesn't deserves to be in the HOF because he MIGHT have taken PEDs... because he aged well? I'm sorry if I'm misunderstanding you, but that seems very silly to me. Jeff Kent is one of the best 2B ever. Without question he belongs in the Hall of Fame. And anyway, ANY player might have used PEDs from this era. Alex freaking Sanchez tested positive. Paul Byrd and Jason Grimsley and many other guys besides the HR hitters tested positive or were named by Mitchell's report... Ken Caminiti used, and yet, he didn't age too well... he died at 41.
I prefer to stick with what we know, rather than what we suspect with no basis whatsoever. I responded:If you're a mayor of a town, planning to name a new park after some prominent citizen and then news came out that looked like there was an 85% chance or so that the guy was a crook, wouldn't you want to name the park after somebody else? I don't give a fuck what Kent deserves and the constant framing of the question in those terms is just wrong. The question is what do our descendants deserve? When they look to see whom we decided was most worth remembering for what they did on the field in the late 1900s into the 2000s, is Jeff Kent one of the people we want them to include.
And saying it's no basis whatsoever is just burying your head in the sand. I doubt if you exclude the 1990s and early 2000s, you could find 6 non-pitchers in all of baseball history who peaked as late as as a whole bunch of them did then. Probably nor a single one peaked as late and as sharply as Kent. And then suddenly, when testing started, people aged normally again. Is it provable? No. But to pretend it wasn't by far the most likely explanation is impossible unless you really, really, really don't want to know.
I think people's misplaced pity for Pete rose must have warped how we talk about who should be in the Hall. Regardless of whether you think Rose should be in, the decision shouldn't be based on whether it's good for him; it should be based on whether it's good for the public. Fairness and the perception of fairness are a part of that, so I understand a desire impartially apply fixed standards, but unlike in criminal proceedings, that should not be the primary concern. |
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| How can I make hover-text (tooltip) here? |
[Feb. 25th, 2012|03:29 pm] |
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I remember someone once posted a trick, combining two tags that Live Journal supports, to make pop-up hover text appear in an entry. One tag to create the text and trigger and the other to give the proper appearance so that users know to or not to hover there, iirc. Maybe one of the tags was lj-specific, but my memory is even more vague on that point. |
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| The proper map of D&D alignment... |
[Feb. 24th, 2012|09:44 pm] |
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...is a cylinder. The axes of the base circle are law-chaos and good-evil. The z-axis is how much you care, which is independent of how far from the center you are. |
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| Santorum has peaked. |
[Feb. 21st, 2012|05:14 pm] |
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His remark on Protestants is not going down well. If by any chance anyone listened to me and bought his shares on Intrade and then decided to gamble for the 20% I said was possible rather than selling at 10% as I said I would, sell NOW. It's not absolutely certain that the shares will plummet but the downside now clearly outweighs the upside and the value could drop in a big hurry. |
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